Group J

Austria Austria

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 0.7%
Group qualification 82.4%
Squad value €271.7m
Avg age 28.6
Avg height 1.848m
Manager Ralf Rangnick

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 17.5%
2nd 42.5%
3rd qualified 22.4%
3rd not qualified 9.1%
4th 8.5%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 82.4%
R16 31.4%
QF 14.2%
SF 5.9%
Final 2.1%
Champion 0.7%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 17.5% 100.0%44.9%23.5%9.8%3.5%1.2%
2nd 42.5% 100.0%28.9%12.1%5.6%2.0%0.7%
3rd 31.5% 71.0%35.8%15.7%5.7%2.0%0.7%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Spain Spain If reached: 43.1% All sims: 35.5% Win rate: 22.7%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 23.9% All sims: 19.7% Win rate: 42.9%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 8.0% All sims: 6.6% Win rate: 45.5%
Canada Canada If reached: 4.7% All sims: 3.8% Win rate: 56.7%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 3.2% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 74.2%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 16.9% All sims: 5.3% Win rate: 29.9%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 12.0% All sims: 3.8% Win rate: 44.1%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 10.8% All sims: 3.4% Win rate: 41.4%
England England If reached: 8.2% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 28.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.2% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 39.7%

QF

Belgium Belgium If reached: 12.3% All sims: 1.8% Win rate: 39.5%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 11.4% All sims: 1.6% Win rate: 27.1%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 9.7% All sims: 1.4% Win rate: 32.1%
Spain Spain If reached: 7.4% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 22.2%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 6.2% All sims: 0.9% Win rate: 42.8%

SF

France France If reached: 16.8% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 23.8%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 12.7% All sims: 0.7% Win rate: 27.8%
England England If reached: 9.4% All sims: 0.6% Win rate: 31.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 9.0% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 34.8%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 8.6% All sims: 0.5% Win rate: 32.4%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 13.1% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.1%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 12.5% All sims: 0.3% Win rate: 28.2%
France France If reached: 11.5% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 24.4%
England England If reached: 7.4% All sims: 0.2% Win rate: 25.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.8% All sims: 0.1% Win rate: 31.2%

Finish 1st

Austria opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 57.5% Path sims: 57.5% Win rate: 42.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 21.9% Path sims: 21.9% Win rate: 22.8%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 11.2% Win rate: 73.9%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 9.4% Win rate: 78.2%

R16

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 19.9% Path sims: 9.0% Win rate: 47.2%
USA USA If reached: 19.8% Path sims: 8.9% Win rate: 45.6%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 19.0% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 56.6%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 14.1% Path sims: 6.3% Win rate: 39.0%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 5.6% Win rate: 58.5%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 30.5% Path sims: 7.2% Win rate: 31.7%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 13.0% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 46.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.5% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 42.5%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 5.5% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 21.3%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 55.9%

SF

England England If reached: 19.1% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 31.6%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 17.9% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 27.9%
France France If reached: 10.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 25.7%
Norway Norway If reached: 6.6% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 40.4%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.6% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 29.9%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 18.5% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 27.7%
France France If reached: 16.7% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 27.7%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 8.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.4%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.3% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 27.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 36.8%

Finish 2nd

Austria opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Spain Spain If reached: 74.4% Path sims: 74.4% Win rate: 22.7%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 22.7% Path sims: 22.7% Win rate: 43.5%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 1.6% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 75.0%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 75.6%

R16

Croatia Croatia If reached: 23.1% Path sims: 6.7% Win rate: 41.5%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 20.9% Path sims: 6.0% Win rate: 44.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 28.2%
England England If reached: 17.9% Path sims: 5.2% Win rate: 28.2%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 59.1%

QF

Belgium Belgium If reached: 28.9% Path sims: 3.5% Win rate: 38.5%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 12.9% Path sims: 1.6% Win rate: 40.9%
USA USA If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 46.9%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 61.3%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 4.1% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 49.5%

SF

France France If reached: 24.4% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 24.5%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.2% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 32.0%
Germany Germany If reached: 12.8% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 38.4%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.3% Path sims: 0.5% Win rate: 29.3%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 39.6%

Final

Argentina Argentina If reached: 18.9% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 28.0%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 11.3% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 29.2%
England England If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 28.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.6% Path sims: 0.2% Win rate: 37.0%
Spain Spain If reached: 6.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 19.0%

Finish 3rd

Austria opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 29.4% Path sims: 20.9% Win rate: 45.5%
Canada Canada If reached: 17.2% Path sims: 12.2% Win rate: 56.7%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 11.2% Path sims: 8.0% Win rate: 63.2%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 6.2% Win rate: 38.8%
USA USA If reached: 6.3% Path sims: 4.5% Win rate: 45.5%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 27.5% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 31.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.8% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 44.4%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 2.7% Win rate: 40.6%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 61.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 4.9% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 40.9%

QF

Argentina Argentina If reached: 27.4% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 28.2%
Spain Spain If reached: 20.4% Path sims: 3.2% Win rate: 21.8%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 43.3%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 4.3% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 47.9%
USA USA If reached: 4.1% Path sims: 0.6% Win rate: 48.3%

SF

Brazil Brazil If reached: 13.6% Path sims: 0.8% Win rate: 26.3%
France France If reached: 12.7% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 20.4%
England England If reached: 12.5% Path sims: 0.7% Win rate: 30.5%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.1% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 29.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 0.4% Win rate: 37.1%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 16.4% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 28.4%
France France If reached: 14.0% Path sims: 0.3% Win rate: 26.4%
Argentina Argentina If reached: 7.2% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 31.1%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 34.2%
England England If reached: 5.8% Path sims: 0.1% Win rate: 16.7%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Patrick Pentz 29 1,83m Bröndby IF €2.2m
GK Florian Wiegele 25 2,05m FC Viktoria Plzen €2.2m
GK Alexander Schlager 30 1,84m Red Bull Salzburg €2.0m
CB Kevin Danso 27 1,90m Tottenham Hotspur €20.0m
CB Philipp Lienhart 29 1,89m SC Freiburg €10.0m
CB Marco Friedl 28 1,87m SV Werder Bremen €10.0m
CB David Affengruber 25 1,85m Elche CF €9.0m
CB Stefan Posch 29 1,90m 1.FSV Mainz 05 €6.0m
CB David Alaba 33 1,80m Real Madrid €3.5m
CB Michael Svoboda 27 1,95m Venezia FC €3.0m
LB Phillipp Mwene 32 1,70m 1.FSV Mainz 05 €1.5m
RB Konrad Laimer 29 1,80m Bayern Munich €32.0m
DM Nicolas Seiwald 25 1,80m RB Leipzig €25.0m
DM Florian Grillitsch 30 1,87m SC Braga €2.5m
CM Carney Chukwuemeka 22 1,88m Borussia Dortmund €20.0m
CM Xaver Schlager 28 1,74m RB Leipzig €10.0m
CM Marcel Sabitzer 32 1,78m Borussia Dortmund €6.0m
CM Alessandro Schöpf 32 1,78m Wolfsberger AC €800k
LM Alexander Prass 25 1,82m TSG 1899 Hoffenheim €9.0m
AM Christoph Baumgartner 26 1,80m RB Leipzig €40.0m
AM Paul Wanner 20 1,85m PSV Eindhoven €22.0m
AM Romano Schmid 26 1,68m SV Werder Bremen €15.0m
RW Patrick Wimmer 25 1,82m VfL Wolfsburg €12.0m
CF Sasa Kalajdzic 28 2,00m LASK €4.0m
CF Marko Arnautovic 37 1,92m Red Star Belgrade €2.5m
CF Michael Gregoritsch 32 1,93m FC Augsburg €1.5m