Group J

Argentina Argentina

This profile is based on 100,000 simulations using the current WC26 simulator engine. The numbers are a model snapshot, not a guarantee. Team ratings, squads and injury updates may change over time.

Champion 10.2%
Group qualification 98.4%
Squad value €816.5m
Avg age 29.1
Avg height 1.793m
Manager Lionel Scaloni

Group

Finish probabilities

1st 71.6%
2nd 20.8%
3rd qualified 6.0%
3rd not qualified 0.7%
4th 0.9%

Tournament

Stage reach probabilities

R32 98.4%
R16 62.6%
QF 45.7%
SF 30.2%
Final 17.9%
Champion 10.2%

Conditional path

Path by group finish

Finish Sample R32R16QFSFFinalChampion
1st 71.6% 100.0%66.6%50.1%32.8%19.5%11.0%
2nd 20.8% 100.0%50.7%33.1%23.3%13.8%8.0%
3rd 6.7% 89.5%64.8%43.1%27.4%16.4%9.8%

Overall opponent pool

Most common opponents by round

If reached shows the opponent split among this team's matches in that round. All sims shows how often the matchup happens across the full 100,000-simulation snapshot.

R32

Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 46.4% All sims: 45.7% Win rate: 66.6%
Spain Spain If reached: 31.9% All sims: 31.4% Win rate: 43.8%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 8.3% All sims: 8.2% Win rate: 91.4%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 7.3% All sims: 7.2% Win rate: 92.3%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 1.8% All sims: 1.7% Win rate: 67.9%

R16

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 15.5% All sims: 9.7% Win rate: 68.5%
USA USA If reached: 14.9% All sims: 9.3% Win rate: 68.9%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 14.4% All sims: 9.0% Win rate: 82.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 11.7% All sims: 7.3% Win rate: 63.2%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 9.7% All sims: 6.1% Win rate: 80.7%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 25.5% All sims: 11.6% Win rate: 52.6%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 11.5% All sims: 5.3% Win rate: 71.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 8.1% All sims: 3.7% Win rate: 67.0%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.0% All sims: 2.7% Win rate: 62.6%
Canada Canada If reached: 4.4% All sims: 2.0% Win rate: 79.9%

SF

England England If reached: 16.0% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 51.5%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 15.8% All sims: 4.8% Win rate: 51.4%
France France If reached: 12.0% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 45.7%
Germany Germany If reached: 7.3% All sims: 2.2% Win rate: 56.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.0% All sims: 2.1% Win rate: 64.6%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 20.0% All sims: 3.6% Win rate: 45.1%
France France If reached: 14.7% All sims: 2.6% Win rate: 45.3%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 6.1% All sims: 1.1% Win rate: 59.7%
England England If reached: 5.8% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 48.8%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 5.7% All sims: 1.0% Win rate: 52.4%

Finish 1st

Argentina opponent pool if finishing 1st

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 57.3% Path sims: 57.3% Win rate: 66.5%
Spain Spain If reached: 22.1% Path sims: 22.1% Win rate: 43.3%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 10.9% Path sims: 10.9% Win rate: 91.3%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 9.7% Path sims: 9.7% Win rate: 92.3%

R16

Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 20.1% Path sims: 13.4% Win rate: 68.5%
USA USA If reached: 19.3% Path sims: 12.8% Win rate: 69.0%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 18.7% Path sims: 12.5% Win rate: 82.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 14.7% Path sims: 9.8% Win rate: 63.2%
Paraguay Paraguay If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 8.4% Win rate: 80.7%

QF

Portugal Portugal If reached: 32.1% Path sims: 16.1% Win rate: 52.6%
Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 14.0% Path sims: 7.0% Win rate: 71.3%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.1% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 67.0%
Canada Canada If reached: 5.0% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 79.8%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 2.3% Win rate: 67.2%

SF

England England If reached: 19.6% Path sims: 6.4% Win rate: 51.7%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 17.6% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 51.7%
France France If reached: 9.4% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 45.4%
Norway Norway If reached: 7.5% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 64.6%
Germany Germany If reached: 6.1% Path sims: 2.0% Win rate: 56.5%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 22.5% Path sims: 4.4% Win rate: 44.9%
France France If reached: 16.1% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 45.2%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.0% Path sims: 1.4% Win rate: 59.8%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.0% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 62.2%
Germany Germany If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 55.0%

Finish 2nd

Argentina opponent pool if finishing 2nd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Spain Spain If reached: 75.0% Path sims: 75.0% Win rate: 44.2%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 22.0% Path sims: 22.0% Win rate: 67.1%
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia If reached: 1.7% Path sims: 1.7% Win rate: 93.0%
Cape Verde Cape Verde If reached: 1.3% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 93.2%

R16

Croatia Croatia If reached: 23.2% Path sims: 11.8% Win rate: 66.1%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 21.4% Path sims: 10.8% Win rate: 68.9%
England England If reached: 18.0% Path sims: 9.1% Win rate: 53.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 17.6% Path sims: 8.9% Win rate: 50.6%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 8.5% Path sims: 4.3% Win rate: 80.6%

QF

Belgium Belgium If reached: 29.1% Path sims: 9.6% Win rate: 61.5%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 71.1%
USA USA If reached: 12.3% Path sims: 4.1% Win rate: 71.5%
Egypt Egypt If reached: 4.5% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 81.1%
Mexico Mexico If reached: 4.4% Path sims: 1.5% Win rate: 68.3%

SF

France France If reached: 25.0% Path sims: 5.8% Win rate: 45.9%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 3.1% Win rate: 57.9%
Germany Germany If reached: 12.6% Path sims: 2.9% Win rate: 55.0%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 8.4% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 48.9%
Morocco Morocco If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 64.4%

Final

England England If reached: 13.7% Path sims: 1.9% Win rate: 47.2%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 13.3% Path sims: 1.8% Win rate: 53.1%
Brazil Brazil If reached: 9.8% Path sims: 1.3% Win rate: 52.3%
Spain Spain If reached: 9.0% Path sims: 1.2% Win rate: 45.0%
France France If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 1.0% Win rate: 45.2%

Finish 3rd

Argentina opponent pool if finishing 3rd

For group-finish paths, If reached is measured within that finish path and round. Path sims shows how often the matchup happens among simulations where the team finished in that position.

R32

Switzerland Switzerland If reached: 29.1% Path sims: 26.1% Win rate: 67.9%
Canada Canada If reached: 17.3% Path sims: 15.4% Win rate: 78.8%
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. If reached: 11.0% Path sims: 9.9% Win rate: 83.5%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 9.5% Path sims: 8.5% Win rate: 63.0%
USA USA If reached: 5.7% Path sims: 5.1% Win rate: 71.8%

R16

Portugal Portugal If reached: 27.2% Path sims: 17.6% Win rate: 51.5%
Colombia Colombia If reached: 10.0% Path sims: 6.5% Win rate: 66.7%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 7.7% Path sims: 5.0% Win rate: 63.9%
Croatia Croatia If reached: 5.3% Path sims: 3.4% Win rate: 65.2%
Ghana Ghana If reached: 4.7% Path sims: 3.0% Win rate: 85.1%

QF

Spain Spain If reached: 21.7% Path sims: 9.3% Win rate: 42.6%
Uruguay Uruguay If reached: 16.4% Path sims: 7.1% Win rate: 67.7%
Austria Austria If reached: 9.2% Path sims: 3.9% Win rate: 78.4%
Türkiye Türkiye If reached: 6.4% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 69.6%
Algeria Algeria If reached: 5.9% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 72.2%

SF

Brazil Brazil If reached: 13.5% Path sims: 3.7% Win rate: 51.4%
France France If reached: 12.2% Path sims: 3.3% Win rate: 46.9%
England England If reached: 11.9% Path sims: 3.3% Win rate: 46.3%
Germany Germany If reached: 8.7% Path sims: 2.4% Win rate: 61.0%
Netherlands Netherlands If reached: 7.6% Path sims: 2.1% Win rate: 62.6%

Final

Spain Spain If reached: 16.9% Path sims: 2.8% Win rate: 48.1%
France France If reached: 15.3% Path sims: 2.5% Win rate: 46.4%
England England If reached: 6.9% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 55.3%
Portugal Portugal If reached: 6.7% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 63.0%
Belgium Belgium If reached: 6.5% Path sims: 1.1% Win rate: 76.1%

Squad

Current squad

26 players
Pos Player Age Height Club Value
GK Emiliano Martínez 33 1,95m Aston Villa €15.0m
GK Gerónimo Rulli 34 1,89m Olympique Marseille €8.0m
GK Juan Musso 32 1,91m Atlético de Madrid €3.0m
CB Cristian Romero 28 1,85m Tottenham Hotspur €50.0m
CB Lisandro Martínez 28 1,75m Manchester United €40.0m
CB Facundo Medina 27 1,84m Olympique Marseille €18.0m
CB Leonardo Balerdi 27 1,87m Olympique Marseille €18.0m
CB Nicolás Otamendi 38 1,83m SL Benfica €1.0m
LB Nicolás Tagliafico 33 1,71m Olympique Lyon €5.0m
RB Nahuel Molina 28 1,75m Atlético de Madrid €15.0m
RB Gonzalo Montiel 29 1,75m CA River Plate €4.5m
DM Leandro Paredes 31 1,80m CA Boca Juniors €5.0m
CM Enzo Fernández 25 1,78m Chelsea FC €90.0m
CM Alexis Mac Allister 27 1,76m Liverpool FC €80.0m
CM Valentín Barco 21 1,70m RC Strasbourg Alsace €35.0m
CM Exequiel Palacios 28 1,78m Bayer 04 Leverkusen €25.0m
CM Rodrigo De Paul 32 1,80m Inter Miami CF €15.0m
AM Nico Paz 21 1,86m Como 1907 €80.0m
AM Giovani Lo Celso 30 1,77m Real Betis Balompié €10.0m
LW Nico González 28 1,80m Atlético de Madrid €24.0m
LW Thiago Almada 25 1,71m Atlético de Madrid €20.0m
RW Giuliano Simeone 23 1,73m Atlético de Madrid €40.0m
RW Lionel Messi 38 1,70m Inter Miami CF €15.0m
CF Julián Álvarez 26 1,70m Atlético de Madrid €90.0m
CF Lautaro Martínez 28 1,74m Inter Milan €85.0m
CF José Manuel López 26 1,90m SE Palmeiras €25.0m