Round of 16
USA vs Belgium forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 94, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: USA 1-4 Belgium · 90 minutes 1-4 · No AET · No penalties · Belgium advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
USA 49.1%
Belgium 50.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
USA 90-minute win 35.9%
90-minute draw 26.5%
Belgium 90-minute win 37.6%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 USA 1-1 Belgium 12.4%
2 USA 0-1 Belgium 10.2%
3 USA 1-0 Belgium 9.9%
4 USA 1-2 Belgium 8.2%
5 USA 2-1 Belgium 8.1%
6 USA 0-0 Belgium 8.0%
7 USA 0-2 Belgium 6.4%
8 USA 2-0 Belgium 5.9%
Total-goal bands
0 8.0%
1 20.1%
2 24.7%
3 21.7%
4 14.0%
5+ 11.6%
Both-team scoring frequency 51.9%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.7%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.7%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Belgium the higher advance chance at 50.9%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 26.5%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
USA's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 35.9%, with extra time appearing in 26.7% of simulations and penalties in 14.7%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.55 total goals. The most common exact score is USA 1-1 Belgium at 12.4%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.7%.