Round of 16
Switzerland vs Colombia forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 96, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Switzerland 0-0 Colombia · 90 minutes 0-0 · AET 0-0 · Pens 4-3 · Switzerland advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Switzerland 45.6%
Colombia 54.4%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Switzerland 90-minute win 31.9%
90-minute draw 27.9%
Colombia 90-minute win 40.2%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Switzerland 1-1 Colombia 12.8%
2 Switzerland 0-1 Colombia 12.4%
3 Switzerland 1-0 Colombia 10.5%
4 Switzerland 0-0 Colombia 10.2%
5 Switzerland 1-2 Colombia 8.4%
6 Switzerland 0-2 Colombia 7.7%
7 Switzerland 2-1 Colombia 7.2%
8 Switzerland 2-0 Colombia 5.8%
Total-goal bands
0 10.2%
1 22.9%
2 26.3%
3 20.8%
4 11.6%
5+ 8.2%
Both-team scoring frequency 46.2%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 27.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 16.0%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Colombia the higher advance chance at 54.4%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.9%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Switzerland's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 31.9%, with extra time appearing in 27.8% of simulations and penalties in 16.0%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.29 total goals. The most common exact score is Switzerland 1-1 Colombia at 12.8%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.3%.