Quarter-final
Spain vs Belgium forecast 
Quarter-final match forecast for Match 98, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Spain 2-1 Belgium · 90 minutes 2-1 · No AET · No penalties · Spain advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Spain 70.3%
Belgium 29.7%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Spain 90-minute win 55.4%
90-minute draw 24.2%
Belgium 90-minute win 20.5%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Spain 1-0 Belgium 12.3%
2 Spain 1-1 Belgium 11.4%
3 Spain 2-0 Belgium 10.9%
4 Spain 2-1 Belgium 9.3%
5 Spain 0-0 Belgium 7.4%
6 Spain 0-1 Belgium 6.6%
7 Spain 3-0 Belgium 6.2%
8 Spain 1-2 Belgium 5.3%
Total-goal bands
0 7.4%
1 19.0%
2 25.4%
3 21.8%
4 14.1%
5+ 12.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 48.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 24.1%
Penalty-shootout frequency 13.3%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Spain the higher advance chance at 70.3%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Belgium's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 20.5%, with extra time appearing in 24.1% of simulations and penalties in 13.3%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.60 total goals. The most common exact score is Spain 1-0 Belgium at 12.3%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.4%.