Round of 32
Spain vs Austria forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 84, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Spain 3-0 Austria · 90 minutes 3-0 · No AET · No penalties · Spain advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Spain 76.9%
Austria 23.1%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Spain 90-minute win 62.9%
90-minute draw 22.4%
Austria 90-minute win 14.7%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Spain 1-0 Austria 14.5%
2 Spain 2-0 Austria 12.9%
3 Spain 1-1 Austria 10.5%
4 Spain 2-1 Austria 9.4%
5 Spain 3-0 Austria 8.0%
6 Spain 0-0 Austria 7.9%
7 Spain 0-1 Austria 5.9%
8 Spain 3-1 Austria 5.5%
Total-goal bands
0 7.9%
1 20.3%
2 25.6%
3 21.9%
4 13.4%
5+ 10.9%
Both-team scoring frequency 42.8%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 22.7%
Penalty-shootout frequency 12.2%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Spain the higher advance chance at 76.9%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 22.4%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Austria's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 14.7%, with extra time appearing in 22.7% of simulations and penalties in 12.2%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.51 total goals. The most common exact score is Spain 1-0 Austria at 14.5%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.6%.