Final
Spain vs Argentina forecast 
Final match forecast for Match 104, with title chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Spain 1-0 Argentina · 90 minutes 0-0 · AET 1-0 · No penalties. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Title chance
Title chance
Spain 58.6%
Argentina 41.4%
Title chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Spain 90-minute win 45.5%
90-minute draw 25.2%
Argentina 90-minute win 29.3%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Spain 1-1 Argentina 11.9%
2 Spain 1-0 Argentina 10.8%
3 Spain 2-1 Argentina 9.2%
4 Spain 0-1 Argentina 8.7%
5 Spain 2-0 Argentina 8.2%
6 Spain 0-0 Argentina 7.1%
7 Spain 1-2 Argentina 6.8%
8 Spain 2-2 Argentina 5.2%
Total-goal bands
0 7.1%
1 19.5%
2 24.9%
3 21.9%
4 14.2%
5+ 12.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 52.0%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.0%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.1%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Spain the higher title chance at 58.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Argentina's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 29.3%, with extra time appearing in 26.0% of simulations and penalties in 14.1%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.61 total goals. The most common exact score is Spain 1-1 Argentina at 11.9%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.9%.