Round of 32
South Africa vs Canada forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 73, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: South Africa 0-1 Canada · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · Canada advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
South Africa 33.1%
Canada 66.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
South Africa 90-minute win 21.8%
90-minute draw 25.4%
Canada 90-minute win 52.8%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 South Africa 0-1 Canada 13.7%
2 South Africa 1-1 Canada 12.0%
3 South Africa 0-2 Canada 10.4%
4 South Africa 1-2 Canada 9.3%
5 South Africa 0-0 Canada 8.5%
6 South Africa 1-0 Canada 7.2%
7 South Africa 2-1 Canada 5.5%
8 South Africa 0-3 Canada 5.3%
Total-goal bands
0 8.5%
1 20.9%
2 26.1%
3 21.3%
4 12.8%
5+ 10.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 47.1%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 25.4%
Penalty-shootout frequency 13.7%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Canada the higher advance chance at 66.9%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.4%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
South Africa's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 21.8%, with extra time appearing in 25.4% of simulations and penalties in 13.7%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.46 total goals. The most common exact score is South Africa 0-1 Canada at 13.7%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.1%.