Round of 16
Portugal vs Spain forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 93, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Portugal 0-1 Spain · 90 minutes 0-1 · No AET · No penalties · Spain advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Portugal 40.8%
Spain 59.2%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Portugal 90-minute win 28.3%
90-minute draw 27.9%
Spain 90-minute win 43.8%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Portugal 1-1 Spain 12.9%
2 Portugal 0-1 Spain 12.8%
3 Portugal 0-0 Spain 10.1%
4 Portugal 1-0 Spain 10.1%
5 Portugal 0-2 Spain 8.7%
6 Portugal 1-2 Spain 8.3%
7 Portugal 2-1 Spain 6.6%
8 Portugal 2-0 Spain 4.8%
Total-goal bands
0 10.1%
1 22.9%
2 26.5%
3 20.5%
4 11.6%
5+ 8.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 45.7%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 27.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 16.0%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Spain the higher advance chance at 59.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.9%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Portugal's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 28.3%, with extra time appearing in 27.8% of simulations and penalties in 16.0%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.30 total goals. The most common exact score is Portugal 1-1 Spain at 12.9%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.5%.