Round of 16
Paraguay vs France forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 89, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Paraguay 0-1 France · 90 minutes 0-1 · No AET · No penalties · France advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Paraguay 13.8%
France 86.2%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Paraguay 90-minute win 8.7%
90-minute draw 17.3%
France 90-minute win 74.0%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Paraguay 0-2 France 14.2%
2 Paraguay 0-1 France 13.0%
3 Paraguay 0-3 France 10.7%
4 Paraguay 1-2 France 8.6%
5 Paraguay 1-1 France 8.2%
6 Paraguay 1-3 France 6.5%
7 Paraguay 0-4 France 6.0%
8 Paraguay 0-0 France 5.7%
Total-goal bands
0 5.7%
1 16.5%
2 23.5%
3 21.9%
4 16.0%
5+ 16.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 41.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 17.0%
Penalty-shootout frequency 8.4%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives France the higher advance chance at 86.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 17.3%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Paraguay's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 8.7%, with extra time appearing in 17.0% of simulations and penalties in 8.4%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.86 total goals. The most common exact score is Paraguay 0-2 France at 14.2%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 23.5%.