Quarter-final
Norway vs England forecast 
Quarter-final match forecast for Match 99, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Norway 1-2 England · 90 minutes 1-1 · AET 1-2 · No penalties · England advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Norway 39.8%
England 60.2%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Norway 90-minute win 29.1%
90-minute draw 24.1%
England 90-minute win 46.7%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Norway 1-1 England 11.3%
2 Norway 0-1 England 9.5%
3 Norway 1-2 England 8.9%
4 Norway 0-2 England 7.6%
5 Norway 2-1 England 7.4%
6 Norway 1-0 England 7.0%
7 Norway 0-0 England 5.7%
8 Norway 2-2 England 5.6%
Total-goal bands
0 5.7%
1 16.5%
2 23.3%
3 22.4%
4 15.9%
5+ 16.2%
Both-team scoring frequency 56.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 24.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 12.8%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives England the higher advance chance at 60.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.1%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Norway's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 29.1%, with extra time appearing in 24.8% of simulations and penalties in 12.8%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.87 total goals. The most common exact score is Norway 1-1 England at 11.3%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 23.3%.