Round of 32
Netherlands vs Morocco forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 75, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco · 90 minutes · AET 1-1 · Pens 2-3 · Morocco advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Netherlands 59.7%
Morocco 40.4%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Netherlands 90-minute win 44.4%
90-minute draw 27.8%
Morocco 90-minute win 27.8%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Netherlands 1-1 Morocco 13.1%
2 Netherlands 1-0 Morocco 13.0%
3 Netherlands 0-0 Morocco 10.0%
4 Netherlands 0-1 Morocco 9.9%
5 Netherlands 2-1 Morocco 8.8%
6 Netherlands 2-0 Morocco 8.5%
7 Netherlands 1-2 Morocco 6.3%
8 Netherlands 0-2 Morocco 5.0%
Total-goal bands
0 10.0%
1 23.0%
2 26.7%
3 20.5%
4 11.7%
5+ 8.3%
Both-team scoring frequency 46.0%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 27.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 16.3%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Netherlands the higher advance chance at 59.7%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.8%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Morocco's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 27.8%, with extra time appearing in 27.8% of simulations and penalties in 16.3%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.30 total goals. The most common exact score is Netherlands 1-1 Morocco at 13.1%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.7%.