Round of 16
Mexico vs England forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 92, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Mexico 2-3 England · 90 minutes 2-3 · No AET · No penalties · England advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Mexico 44.5%
England 55.5%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Mexico 90-minute win 31.7%
90-minute draw 27.8%
England 90-minute win 40.5%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Mexico 1-1 England 13.0%
2 Mexico 0-1 England 12.3%
3 Mexico 1-0 England 10.6%
4 Mexico 0-0 England 9.7%
5 Mexico 1-2 England 8.2%
6 Mexico 0-2 England 7.8%
7 Mexico 2-1 England 6.8%
8 Mexico 2-0 England 5.8%
Total-goal bands
0 9.7%
1 22.9%
2 26.6%
3 20.4%
4 11.7%
5+ 8.7%
Both-team scoring frequency 46.5%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 28.0%
Penalty-shootout frequency 15.9%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives England the higher advance chance at 55.5%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.8%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Mexico's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 31.7%, with extra time appearing in 28.0% of simulations and penalties in 15.9%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.32 total goals. The most common exact score is Mexico 1-1 England at 13.0%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.6%.