Round of 32
Ivory Coast vs Norway forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 78, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · Norway advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Ivory Coast 41.1%
Norway 58.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Ivory Coast 90-minute win 29.2%
90-minute draw 25.0%
Norway 90-minute win 45.9%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Ivory Coast 1-1 Norway 11.8%
2 Ivory Coast 0-1 Norway 10.0%
3 Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway 9.2%
4 Ivory Coast 0-2 Norway 7.8%
5 Ivory Coast 1-0 Norway 7.6%
6 Ivory Coast 2-1 Norway 6.9%
7 Ivory Coast 0-0 Norway 6.4%
8 Ivory Coast 2-2 Norway 5.7%
Total-goal bands
0 6.4%
1 17.6%
2 24.4%
3 21.6%
4 15.7%
5+ 14.3%
Both-team scoring frequency 55.0%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 25.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 13.7%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Norway the higher advance chance at 58.9%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.0%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Ivory Coast's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 29.2%, with extra time appearing in 25.8% of simulations and penalties in 13.7%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.75 total goals. The most common exact score is Ivory Coast 1-1 Norway at 11.8%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.4%.