Match analysis
Iran vs New Zealand 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 15, Group G, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Iran 2-2 New Zealand ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 7.4%
1 19.9%
2 25.4%
3 21.2%
4 14.1%
5+ 11.9%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 92.6% Below 7.4%
Total 1.5 At least 72.7% Below 27.3%
Total 2.5 At least 47.2% Below 52.8%
Total 3.5 At least 26.0% Below 74.0%
Total 4.5 At least 11.9% Below 88.1%
Team goals
Iran goal thresholds
Iran 0.5 At least 76.4% Below 23.7%
Iran 1.5 At least 42.7% Below 57.3%
Iran 2.5 At least 18.0% Below 82.0%
Iran 3.5 At least 5.9% Below 94.1%
Iran 4.5 At least 1.6% Below 98.4%
Team goals
New Zealand goal thresholds
New Zealand 0.5 At least 67.8% Below 32.2%
New Zealand 1.5 At least 31.1% Below 68.9%
New Zealand 2.5 At least 10.5% Below 89.5%
New Zealand 3.5 At least 2.7% Below 97.3%
New Zealand 4.5 At least 0.6% Below 99.4%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 51.5%
Iran clean sheet 32.2%
New Zealand clean sheet 23.7%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Iran 1-1 New Zealand 12.3%
2 Iran 1-0 New Zealand 11.0%
3 Iran 0-1 New Zealand 8.9%
4 Iran 2-1 New Zealand 8.8%
5 Iran 2-0 New Zealand 8.2%
6 Iran 0-0 New Zealand 7.4%
7 Iran 1-2 New Zealand 6.8%
8 Iran 2-2 New Zealand 5.1%
9 Iran 0-2 New Zealand 5.0%
10 Iran 3-1 New Zealand 4.6%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.