Round of 32
Germany vs Paraguay forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 74, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Germany 1-1 Paraguay · 90 minutes · AET 1-1 · Pens 3-4 · Paraguay advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Germany 77.8%
Paraguay 22.3%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Germany 90-minute win 63.5%
90-minute draw 22.1%
Paraguay 90-minute win 14.5%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Germany 1-0 Paraguay 13.7%
2 Germany 2-0 Paraguay 12.7%
3 Germany 1-1 Paraguay 10.4%
4 Germany 2-1 Paraguay 9.7%
5 Germany 3-0 Paraguay 7.7%
6 Germany 0-0 Paraguay 7.6%
7 Germany 3-1 Paraguay 5.9%
8 Germany 0-1 Paraguay 5.4%
Total-goal bands
0 7.6%
1 19.1%
2 25.3%
3 21.8%
4 13.8%
5+ 12.4%
Both-team scoring frequency 44.7%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 22.2%
Penalty-shootout frequency 11.7%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Germany the higher advance chance at 77.8%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 22.1%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Paraguay's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 14.5%, with extra time appearing in 22.2% of simulations and penalties in 11.7%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.60 total goals. The most common exact score is Germany 1-0 Paraguay at 13.7%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.3%.