Round of 32
France vs Sweden forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 77, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: France 3-0 Sweden · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · France advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
France 80.0%
Sweden 20.0%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
France 90-minute win 67.3%
90-minute draw 19.3%
Sweden 90-minute win 13.4%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 France 2-0 Sweden 11.8%
2 France 1-0 Sweden 10.7%
3 France 2-1 Sweden 9.9%
4 France 1-1 Sweden 8.9%
5 France 3-0 Sweden 8.6%
6 France 3-1 Sweden 6.9%
7 France 0-0 Sweden 5.1%
8 France 2-2 Sweden 4.3%
Total-goal bands
0 5.1%
1 15.0%
2 22.6%
3 22.6%
4 16.7%
5+ 18.0%
Both-team scoring frequency 49.8%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 18.6%
Penalty-shootout frequency 9.1%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives France the higher advance chance at 80.0%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 19.3%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Sweden's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 13.4%, with extra time appearing in 18.6% of simulations and penalties in 9.1%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.98 total goals. The most common exact score is France 2-0 Sweden at 11.8%, and the largest total-goal band is 3 goals at 22.6%.