Semifinal
France vs Spain forecast 
Semifinal match forecast for Match 101, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: France 0-2 Spain · 90 minutes 0-2 · No AET · No penalties · Spain advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
France 51.6%
Spain 48.4%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
France 90-minute win 37.9%
90-minute draw 27.6%
Spain 90-minute win 34.6%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 France 1-1 Spain 12.9%
2 France 1-0 Spain 11.6%
3 France 0-1 Spain 11.0%
4 France 0-0 Spain 9.5%
5 France 2-1 Spain 8.2%
6 France 1-2 Spain 7.5%
7 France 2-0 Spain 7.1%
8 France 0-2 Spain 6.2%
Total-goal bands
0 9.5%
1 22.6%
2 26.2%
3 20.8%
4 11.9%
5+ 8.9%
Both-team scoring frequency 47.5%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 28.4%
Penalty-shootout frequency 16.4%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives France the higher advance chance at 51.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.6%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Spain's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 34.6%, with extra time appearing in 28.4% of simulations and penalties in 16.4%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.35 total goals. The most common exact score is France 1-1 Spain at 12.9%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.2%.