Quarter-final
France vs Morocco forecast 
Quarter-final match forecast for Match 97, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: France 2-0 Morocco · 90 minutes 2-0 · No AET · No penalties · France advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
France 71.2%
Morocco 28.8%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
France 90-minute win 57.2%
90-minute draw 24.5%
Morocco 90-minute win 18.3%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 France 1-0 Morocco 13.5%
2 France 1-1 Morocco 11.6%
3 France 2-0 Morocco 11.4%
4 France 2-1 Morocco 9.6%
5 France 0-0 Morocco 8.1%
6 France 0-1 Morocco 6.8%
7 France 3-0 Morocco 6.2%
8 France 3-1 Morocco 5.4%
Total-goal bands
0 8.1%
1 20.3%
2 25.8%
3 21.3%
4 13.6%
5+ 11.0%
Both-team scoring frequency 46.5%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 24.4%
Penalty-shootout frequency 13.3%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives France the higher advance chance at 71.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.5%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Morocco's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 18.3%, with extra time appearing in 24.4% of simulations and penalties in 13.3%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.51 total goals. The most common exact score is France 1-0 Morocco at 13.5%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.8%.