Third-place playoff
France vs England forecast 
Third-place playoff match forecast for Match 103, with third-place winner chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: France 4-6 England · 90 minutes 4-6 · No AET · No penalties. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Third-place winner chance
Third-place winner chance
France 62.6%
England 37.5%
Third-place winner chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
France 90-minute win 48.0%
90-minute draw 26.1%
England 90-minute win 26.0%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 France 1-1 England 12.3%
2 France 1-0 England 12.2%
3 France 2-0 England 9.0%
4 France 2-1 England 8.9%
5 France 0-0 England 8.5%
6 France 0-1 England 8.4%
7 France 1-2 England 6.6%
8 France 3-1 England 4.6%
Total-goal bands
0 8.5%
1 20.6%
2 25.5%
3 21.3%
4 13.1%
5+ 10.9%
Both-team scoring frequency 48.9%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.1%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.2%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives France the higher third-place winner chance at 62.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 26.1%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
England's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 26.0%, with extra time appearing in 26.1% of simulations and penalties in 14.2%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.49 total goals. The most common exact score is France 1-1 England at 12.3%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.5%.