Semifinal
England vs Argentina forecast 
Semifinal match forecast for Match 102, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: England 1-2 Argentina · 90 minutes 1-2 · No AET · No penalties · Argentina advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
England 47.4%
Argentina 52.6%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
England 90-minute win 34.1%
90-minute draw 26.5%
Argentina 90-minute win 39.4%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 England 1-1 Argentina 12.6%
2 England 0-1 Argentina 9.5%
3 England 1-0 Argentina 8.8%
4 England 1-2 Argentina 8.7%
5 England 2-1 Argentina 8.1%
6 England 0-0 Argentina 7.1%
7 England 0-2 Argentina 6.7%
8 England 2-2 Argentina 5.6%
Total-goal bands
0 7.1%
1 18.3%
2 24.7%
3 22.2%
4 14.8%
5+ 13.1%
Both-team scoring frequency 54.9%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 25.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.2%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Argentina the higher advance chance at 52.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 26.5%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
England's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 34.1%, with extra time appearing in 25.8% of simulations and penalties in 14.2%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.67 total goals. The most common exact score is England 1-1 Argentina at 12.6%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.7%.