Round of 16
Canada vs Morocco forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 90, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Canada 0-3 Morocco · 90 minutes 0-3 · No AET · No penalties · Morocco advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Canada 31.5%
Morocco 68.5%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Canada 90-minute win 21.1%
90-minute draw 25.8%
Morocco 90-minute win 53.2%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Canada 0-1 Morocco 13.9%
2 Canada 1-1 Morocco 12.2%
3 Canada 0-2 Morocco 10.3%
4 Canada 1-2 Morocco 9.0%
5 Canada 0-0 Morocco 8.9%
6 Canada 1-0 Morocco 7.7%
7 Canada 0-3 Morocco 5.7%
8 Canada 2-1 Morocco 5.3%
Total-goal bands
0 8.9%
1 21.6%
2 25.9%
3 20.9%
4 12.8%
5+ 9.8%
Both-team scoring frequency 45.8%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.3%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.9%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Morocco the higher advance chance at 68.5%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.8%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Canada's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 21.1%, with extra time appearing in 26.3% of simulations and penalties in 14.9%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.42 total goals. The most common exact score is Canada 0-1 Morocco at 13.9%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.9%.