Round of 16
Brazil vs Norway forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 91, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Brazil 1-2 Norway · 90 minutes 1-2 · No AET · No penalties · Norway advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Brazil 63.6%
Norway 36.4%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Brazil 90-minute win 50.4%
90-minute draw 24.4%
Norway 90-minute win 25.1%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Brazil 1-1 Norway 11.4%
2 Brazil 1-0 Norway 10.0%
3 Brazil 2-1 Norway 9.3%
4 Brazil 2-0 Norway 8.5%
5 Brazil 0-1 Norway 6.7%
6 Brazil 1-2 Norway 6.4%
7 Brazil 0-0 Norway 5.9%
8 Brazil 2-2 Norway 5.8%
Total-goal bands
0 5.9%
1 16.7%
2 23.5%
3 22.0%
4 16.1%
5+ 15.8%
Both-team scoring frequency 55.4%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 24.0%
Penalty-shootout frequency 12.5%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Brazil the higher advance chance at 63.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.4%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Norway's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 25.1%, with extra time appearing in 24.0% of simulations and penalties in 12.5%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.84 total goals. The most common exact score is Brazil 1-1 Norway at 11.4%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 23.5%.