Round of 32
Brazil vs Japan forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 76, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Brazil 2-1 Japan · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · Brazil advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Brazil 66.0%
Japan 34.0%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Brazil 90-minute win 50.8%
90-minute draw 26.2%
Japan 90-minute win 23.0%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Brazil 1-0 Japan 13.4%
2 Brazil 1-1 Japan 12.3%
3 Brazil 2-0 Japan 9.8%
4 Brazil 2-1 Japan 9.6%
5 Brazil 0-0 Japan 9.1%
6 Brazil 0-1 Japan 7.8%
7 Brazil 1-2 Japan 5.7%
8 Brazil 3-0 Japan 4.9%
Total-goal bands
0 9.1%
1 21.2%
2 25.9%
3 21.4%
4 12.6%
5+ 9.8%
Both-team scoring frequency 47.1%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.1%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.8%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Brazil the higher advance chance at 66.0%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 26.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Japan's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 23.0%, with extra time appearing in 26.1% of simulations and penalties in 14.8%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.42 total goals. The most common exact score is Brazil 1-0 Japan at 13.4%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.9%.