Round of 32
Belgium vs Senegal forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 82, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Belgium 3-2 Senegal · 90 minutes 2-2 · AET 3-2 · No penalties · Belgium advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Belgium 56.7%
Senegal 43.3%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Belgium 90-minute win 43.7%
90-minute draw 25.8%
Senegal 90-minute win 30.6%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Belgium 1-1 Senegal 11.8%
2 Belgium 1-0 Senegal 11.2%
3 Belgium 2-1 Senegal 8.7%
4 Belgium 0-1 Senegal 8.5%
5 Belgium 2-0 Senegal 7.8%
6 Belgium 0-0 Senegal 7.6%
7 Belgium 1-2 Senegal 7.4%
8 Belgium 2-2 Senegal 5.2%
Total-goal bands
0 7.6%
1 19.7%
2 24.7%
3 21.8%
4 14.2%
5+ 12.2%
Both-team scoring frequency 51.8%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.4%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.4%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Belgium the higher advance chance at 56.7%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.8%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Senegal's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 30.6%, with extra time appearing in 26.4% of simulations and penalties in 14.4%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.59 total goals. The most common exact score is Belgium 1-1 Senegal at 11.8%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.7%.