Quarter-final
Argentina vs Switzerland forecast 
Quarter-final match forecast for Match 100, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Argentina 3-1 Switzerland · 90 minutes 1-1 · AET 3-1 · No penalties · Argentina advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Argentina 68.7%
Switzerland 31.3%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Argentina 90-minute win 54.1%
90-minute draw 24.2%
Switzerland 90-minute win 21.6%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Argentina 1-0 Switzerland 11.6%
2 Argentina 1-1 Switzerland 11.3%
3 Argentina 2-0 Switzerland 9.9%
4 Argentina 2-1 Switzerland 9.4%
5 Argentina 0-0 Switzerland 7.0%
6 Argentina 0-1 Switzerland 6.8%
7 Argentina 3-1 Switzerland 5.5%
8 Argentina 1-2 Switzerland 5.5%
Total-goal bands
0 7.0%
1 18.3%
2 24.6%
3 21.5%
4 15.0%
5+ 13.5%
Both-team scoring frequency 50.7%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 23.9%
Penalty-shootout frequency 12.6%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Argentina the higher advance chance at 68.7%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Switzerland's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 21.6%, with extra time appearing in 23.9% of simulations and penalties in 12.6%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.68 total goals. The most common exact score is Argentina 1-0 Switzerland at 11.6%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.6%.