Round of 32
Argentina vs Cape Verde forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 86, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde · 90 minutes 1-1 · AET 3-2 · No penalties · Argentina advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Argentina 90.5%
Cape Verde 9.5%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Argentina 90-minute win 81.4%
90-minute draw 13.0%
Cape Verde 90-minute win 5.6%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde 14.2%
2 Argentina 3-0 Cape Verde 13.2%
3 Argentina 1-0 Cape Verde 11.1%
4 Argentina 4-0 Cape Verde 8.2%
5 Argentina 2-1 Cape Verde 8.0%
6 Argentina 3-1 Cape Verde 6.8%
7 Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde 6.6%
8 Argentina 4-1 Cape Verde 4.5%
Total-goal bands
0 3.9%
1 13.4%
2 21.4%
3 23.0%
4 17.4%
5+ 20.9%
Both-team scoring frequency 39.2%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 13.1%
Penalty-shootout frequency 6.4%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Argentina the higher advance chance at 90.5%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 13.0%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Cape Verde's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 5.6%, with extra time appearing in 13.1% of simulations and penalties in 6.4%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 3.16 total goals. The most common exact score is Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde at 14.2%, and the largest total-goal band is 3 goals at 23.0%.