WC26 Simulator
Simulator Updates
Major model, data, and feature updates for the live World Cup 2026 Simulator.
Analysis First-round path shifts Published Jun 18, 2026, 12:00 UTC A 20k baseline-vs-current comparison after every team played once, focused on qualification routes and the best-third race.
The opening round moved Round of 32 paths much more sharply than title chances, with Australia, Turkey, Paraguay, Spain, and Ecuador showing how the 48-team format can reshape qualification routes early.
Forecasts Forecasts hub June 17, 2026 Open the latest current-state forecast pages from one place.
The Forecasts tab brings together Group Forecasts, Team Profiles, Match Forecasts, and Score Distributions for quick navigation from the simulator.
Live state Locked scores and live-state simulations June 14, 2026 Completed matches stay fixed while remaining matches are simulated from the current live state.
Mexico 2-0 South Africa and South Korea 2-1 Czechia are part of the live tournament state. Default simulations now start from that live state: official completed results stay fixed while the remaining matches are simulated from that point forward.
Simulation Adjustable Power Ratings June 13, 2026 DEF, MID, and ATT ratings are visible and adjustable.
Team Strength shows live baseline DEF, MID, and ATT ratings. Users can open Adjust mode to create custom scenarios. Admin/model rating updates can reflect injuries, suspensions, and recent form.
Model update Venue-aware host advantage June 12, 2026 Host teams receive a match-level bonus only at home.
USA, Mexico, and Canada receive a +2% match-level DEF/MID/ATT bonus only when playing in their own host country. The bonus does not permanently change baseline ratings.
Fan Zone Matchday Poll June 10, 2026 Vote and follow matchday sentiment from the Fan Zone.
The Matchday Poll gives fans a quick way to react to live tournament moments and compare sentiment around key fixtures.
MODEL UPDATE Model update: team profile stage probabilities June 9, 2026 Team profile stage-probability summaries were recalculated after an aggregation correction.
A team profile stage-probability aggregation issue was corrected on June 9, 2026. The issue affected displayed conditional knockout-stage path metrics in the Round of 16, quarterfinal, and semifinal sections. Teams that lost in the semifinal and moved into the third-place match were not counted correctly in one part of the stage summary.
The match simulation engine itself was not changed. Some displayed team path probabilities were affected, and the affected team profile numbers were regenerated after the calculation was corrected.
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Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.