Round of 32
USA vs Bosnia-Herz. forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 81, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herz. · 90 minutes 2-0 · No AET · No penalties · USA advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
USA 70.2%
Bosnia-Herz. 29.8%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
USA 90-minute win 55.1%
90-minute draw 24.7%
Bosnia-Herz. 90-minute win 20.2%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 USA 1-0 Bosnia-Herz. 13.2%
2 USA 1-1 Bosnia-Herz. 11.6%
3 USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herz. 10.9%
4 USA 2-1 Bosnia-Herz. 9.4%
5 USA 0-0 Bosnia-Herz. 8.3%
6 USA 0-1 Bosnia-Herz. 7.5%
7 USA 3-0 Bosnia-Herz. 6.2%
8 USA 3-1 Bosnia-Herz. 5.4%
Total-goal bands
0 8.3%
1 20.8%
2 25.6%
3 21.4%
4 13.3%
5+ 10.6%
Both-team scoring frequency 46.1%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 24.4%
Penalty-shootout frequency 13.7%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives USA the higher advance chance at 70.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 24.7%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Bosnia-Herz.'s clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 20.2%, with extra time appearing in 24.4% of simulations and penalties in 13.7%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.48 total goals. The most common exact score is USA 1-0 Bosnia-Herz. at 13.2%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.6%.