Round of 32
Switzerland vs Algeria forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 85, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Switzerland 2-0 Algeria · 90 minutes 2-0 · No AET · No penalties · Switzerland advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Switzerland 63.6%
Algeria 36.4%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Switzerland 90-minute win 49.1%
90-minute draw 25.8%
Algeria 90-minute win 25.1%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Switzerland 1-1 Algeria 12.3%
2 Switzerland 1-0 Algeria 11.8%
3 Switzerland 2-1 Algeria 9.3%
4 Switzerland 2-0 Algeria 9.2%
5 Switzerland 0-1 Algeria 7.8%
6 Switzerland 0-0 Algeria 7.4%
7 Switzerland 1-2 Algeria 6.1%
8 Switzerland 2-2 Algeria 5.1%
Total-goal bands
0 7.4%
1 19.6%
2 25.7%
3 21.5%
4 14.0%
5+ 11.8%
Both-team scoring frequency 50.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 25.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.0%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Switzerland the higher advance chance at 63.6%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.8%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Algeria's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 25.1%, with extra time appearing in 25.8% of simulations and penalties in 14.0%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.57 total goals. The most common exact score is Switzerland 1-1 Algeria at 12.3%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.7%.