Round of 32
Portugal vs Croatia forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 83, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Portugal 2-1 Croatia · 90 minutes 2-1 · No AET · No penalties · Portugal advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Portugal 63.1%
Croatia 36.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Portugal 90-minute win 47.8%
90-minute draw 27.2%
Croatia 90-minute win 25.0%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Portugal 1-0 Croatia 14.2%
2 Portugal 1-1 Croatia 12.3%
3 Portugal 0-0 Croatia 10.2%
4 Portugal 2-0 Croatia 9.5%
5 Portugal 0-1 Croatia 9.3%
6 Portugal 2-1 Croatia 9.0%
7 Portugal 1-2 Croatia 6.0%
8 Portugal 3-0 Croatia 4.3%
Total-goal bands
0 10.2%
1 23.6%
2 25.9%
3 20.7%
4 11.6%
5+ 8.0%
Both-team scoring frequency 44.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 27.9%
Penalty-shootout frequency 16.3%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Portugal the higher advance chance at 63.1%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 27.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Croatia's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 25.0%, with extra time appearing in 27.9% of simulations and penalties in 16.3%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.28 total goals. The most common exact score is Portugal 1-0 Croatia at 14.2%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 25.9%.