Round of 32
Mexico vs Ecuador forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 79, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Mexico 2-0 Ecuador · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · Mexico advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Mexico 53.1%
Ecuador 46.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Mexico 90-minute win 38.5%
90-minute draw 28.7%
Ecuador 90-minute win 32.8%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Mexico 1-0 Ecuador 13.2%
2 Mexico 1-1 Ecuador 13.1%
3 Mexico 0-1 Ecuador 11.5%
4 Mexico 0-0 Ecuador 11.1%
5 Mexico 2-0 Ecuador 7.6%
6 Mexico 2-1 Ecuador 7.5%
7 Mexico 1-2 Ecuador 7.0%
8 Mexico 0-2 Ecuador 6.3%
Total-goal bands
0 11.1%
1 24.6%
2 27.0%
3 19.5%
4 10.8%
5+ 7.0%
Both-team scoring frequency 43.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 29.0%
Penalty-shootout frequency 17.2%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Mexico the higher advance chance at 53.1%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 28.7%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Ecuador's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 32.8%, with extra time appearing in 29.0% of simulations and penalties in 17.2%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.18 total goals. The most common exact score is Mexico 1-0 Ecuador at 13.2%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 27.0%.