Match analysis
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 
Match forecast and score distribution for Match 9, Group E, generated from the current simulator ratings.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador ยท Final. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 10.6%
1 24.7%
2 26.3%
3 19.9%
4 11.2%
5+ 7.4%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 89.4% Below 10.6%
Total 1.5 At least 64.7% Below 35.3%
Total 2.5 At least 38.4% Below 61.6%
Total 3.5 At least 18.6% Below 81.5%
Total 4.5 At least 7.4% Below 92.6%
Team goals
Ivory Coast goal thresholds
Ivory Coast 0.5 At least 66.9% Below 33.1%
Ivory Coast 1.5 At least 29.9% Below 70.1%
Ivory Coast 2.5 At least 10.1% Below 89.9%
Ivory Coast 3.5 At least 2.5% Below 97.5%
Ivory Coast 4.5 At least 0.5% Below 99.5%
Team goals
Ecuador goal thresholds
Ecuador 0.5 At least 67.6% Below 32.5%
Ecuador 1.5 At least 30.7% Below 69.3%
Ecuador 2.5 At least 10.4% Below 89.7%
Ecuador 3.5 At least 2.7% Below 97.3%
Ecuador 4.5 At least 0.5% Below 99.5%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 45.1%
Ivory Coast clean sheet 32.5%
Ecuador clean sheet 33.1%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador 13.2%
2 Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuador 12.4%
3 Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador 12.2%
4 Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador 10.6%
5 Ivory Coast 1-2 Ecuador 7.5%
6 Ivory Coast 2-1 Ecuador 7.5%
7 Ivory Coast 0-2 Ecuador 6.7%
8 Ivory Coast 2-0 Ecuador 6.3%
9 Ivory Coast 2-2 Ecuador 4.0%
10 Ivory Coast 1-3 Ecuador 2.9%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page is a direct match simulation reference for one fixture. It uses the simulator's current team ratings and venue context to estimate score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee or betting advice.