Round of 32
England vs DR Congo forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 80, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: England 2-1 DR Congo · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties · England advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
England 81.1%
DR Congo 18.9%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
England 90-minute win 67.5%
90-minute draw 20.5%
DR Congo 90-minute win 11.9%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 England 2-0 DR Congo 14.1%
2 England 1-0 DR Congo 14.1%
3 England 1-1 DR Congo 9.1%
4 England 2-1 DR Congo 9.1%
5 England 3-0 DR Congo 8.8%
6 England 0-0 DR Congo 7.8%
7 England 3-1 DR Congo 6.2%
8 England 0-1 DR Congo 4.9%
Total-goal bands
0 7.8%
1 18.9%
2 24.8%
3 21.3%
4 14.6%
5+ 12.5%
Both-team scoring frequency 41.5%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 21.1%
Penalty-shootout frequency 11.1%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives England the higher advance chance at 81.1%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 20.5%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
DR Congo's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 11.9%, with extra time appearing in 21.1% of simulations and penalties in 11.1%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.62 total goals. The most common exact score is England 2-0 DR Congo at 14.1%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 24.8%.