Match analysis
Egypt vs New Zealand 
Forecast saved before kickoff for Match 40, Group G, showing match probabilities and possible scorelines.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Egypt 3-1 New Zealand · 90 minutes · No AET · No penalties. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Goal bands
Total goals distribution
0 5.6%
1 16.1%
2 23.2%
3 22.8%
4 16.0%
5+ 16.4%
Goal thresholds
Total-goal thresholds
Total 0.5 At least 94.4% Below 5.6%
Total 1.5 At least 78.3% Below 21.6%
Total 2.5 At least 55.2% Below 44.8%
Total 3.5 At least 32.4% Below 67.6%
Total 4.5 At least 16.4% Below 83.6%
Team goals
Egypt goal thresholds
Egypt 0.5 At least 86.3% Below 13.7%
Egypt 1.5 At least 58.9% Below 41.1%
Egypt 2.5 At least 32.0% Below 68.0%
Egypt 3.5 At least 14.1% Below 85.9%
Egypt 4.5 At least 5.1% Below 94.9%
Team goals
New Zealand goal thresholds
New Zealand 0.5 At least 59.2% Below 40.8%
New Zealand 1.5 At least 22.4% Below 77.6%
New Zealand 2.5 At least 6.3% Below 93.7%
New Zealand 3.5 At least 1.4% Below 98.6%
New Zealand 4.5 At least 0.2% Below 99.8%
Scoring frequency
Both teams scoring
Both teams score 51.1%
Egypt clean sheet 40.8%
New Zealand clean sheet 13.7%
Common scorelines
Top exact scores
1 Egypt 1-0 New Zealand 11.1%
2 Egypt 2-0 New Zealand 10.8%
3 Egypt 1-1 New Zealand 10.2%
4 Egypt 2-1 New Zealand 10.0%
5 Egypt 3-0 New Zealand 7.7%
6 Egypt 3-1 New Zealand 6.5%
7 Egypt 0-0 New Zealand 5.6%
8 Egypt 0-1 New Zealand 4.9%
9 Egypt 1-2 New Zealand 4.5%
10 Egypt 2-2 New Zealand 4.5%
Guide
What this simulation preview shows
This page preserves a pre-match model forecast for one fixture, using the ratings and venue context captured in that reference. It shows possible score patterns, not a full tournament-path run.
Score distribution
How to read the numbers
Average score is the mean goals per team across all runs. Total-goal bands group matches by combined goals, both-team scoring frequency shows how often each side scores at least once, and common scorelines show the most frequent exact results in the sample.
Model note
Simulation reference, not certainty
A real match can land far away from the most common model outcomes. Use these outputs as a way to understand the range of plausible scorelines, not as a guarantee.