Round of 32
Colombia vs Ghana forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 87, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Colombia 1-0 Ghana · 90 minutes 1-0 · No AET · No penalties · Colombia advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Colombia 68.8%
Ghana 31.2%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Colombia 90-minute win 53.6%
90-minute draw 25.9%
Ghana 90-minute win 20.5%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Colombia 1-0 Ghana 14.4%
2 Colombia 1-1 Ghana 12.0%
3 Colombia 2-0 Ghana 11.0%
4 Colombia 0-0 Ghana 9.6%
5 Colombia 2-1 Ghana 9.1%
6 Colombia 0-1 Ghana 8.2%
7 Colombia 3-0 Ghana 5.9%
8 Colombia 1-2 Ghana 4.8%
Total-goal bands
0 9.6%
1 22.6%
2 26.3%
3 20.7%
4 11.9%
5+ 9.0%
Both-team scoring frequency 43.6%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 25.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 14.5%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Colombia the higher advance chance at 68.8%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 25.9%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Ghana's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 20.5%, with extra time appearing in 25.8% of simulations and penalties in 14.5%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.34 total goals. The most common exact score is Colombia 1-0 Ghana at 14.4%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.3%.