Round of 32
Australia vs Egypt forecast 
Round of 32 match forecast for Match 88, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Australia 1-1 Egypt · 90 minutes 1-1 · AET 1-1 · Pens 2-4 · Egypt advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Australia 37.9%
Egypt 62.2%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Australia 90-minute win 25.2%
90-minute draw 26.6%
Egypt 90-minute win 48.2%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Australia 0-1 Egypt 12.7%
2 Australia 1-1 Egypt 12.6%
3 Australia 0-2 Egypt 9.2%
4 Australia 1-2 Egypt 9.1%
5 Australia 0-0 Egypt 8.6%
6 Australia 1-0 Egypt 8.3%
7 Australia 2-1 Egypt 6.0%
8 Australia 2-2 Egypt 4.6%
Total-goal bands
0 8.6%
1 21.0%
2 26.1%
3 20.9%
4 13.0%
5+ 10.3%
Both-team scoring frequency 48.5%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 26.8%
Penalty-shootout frequency 15.2%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Egypt the higher advance chance at 62.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 26.6%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Australia's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 25.2%, with extra time appearing in 26.8% of simulations and penalties in 15.2%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 2.46 total goals. The most common exact score is Australia 0-1 Egypt at 12.7%, and the largest total-goal band is 2 goals at 26.1%.