Round of 16
Argentina vs Egypt forecast 
Round of 16 match forecast for Match 95, with advance chance, 90-minute score distribution, and knockout swing metrics from the current simulation reference.
Forecast reference: Jun 10, 2026
Official result is now known: Argentina 3-2 Egypt · 90 minutes 3-2 · No AET · No penalties · Argentina advanced. This page shows the model's simulated score distribution for comparison.
Knockout advance chance
Knockout advance chance
Argentina 81.2%
Egypt 18.8%
Advance chance includes regulation, extra time, and penalties.
90-minute regulation outcome
Win / draw / loss
Argentina 90-minute win 69.8%
90-minute draw 17.2%
Egypt 90-minute win 13.0%
Regulation outcome and score distribution are 90-minute only.
Score distribution
90-minute score shape
Most common scorelines
1 Argentina 2-0 Egypt 10.6%
2 Argentina 2-1 Egypt 9.9%
3 Argentina 1-0 Egypt 8.9%
4 Argentina 1-1 Egypt 8.1%
5 Argentina 3-0 Egypt 7.9%
6 Argentina 3-1 Egypt 7.6%
7 Argentina 4-0 Egypt 5.0%
8 Argentina 4-1 Egypt 4.5%
Total-goal bands
0 3.6%
1 12.4%
2 20.4%
3 22.1%
4 18.3%
5+ 23.2%
Both-team scoring frequency 54.3%
Knockout swing
Extra-time and shootout paths
Extra-time frequency 17.5%
Penalty-shootout frequency 8.0%
Model view
Current simulation reference
The model output gives Argentina the higher advance chance at 81.2%, including extra time and penalties. The 90-minute draw share is 17.2%, so the matchup still has a meaningful knockout-extension path.
How the underdog can make it close
Keep regulation narrow
Egypt's clearest model path is to keep the match level deep into regulation. The underdog's 90-minute win share is 13.0%, with extra time appearing in 17.5% of simulations and penalties in 8.0%.
Score shape
90-minute distribution
The 90-minute score distribution averages 3.29 total goals. The most common exact score is Argentina 2-0 Egypt at 10.6%, and the largest total-goal band is 5+ goals at 23.2%.