Available
Open team profiles Team Profiles
Latest current-state team profile pages with group outlook, tournament paths, opponent pools, and squad snapshots.
WC26 Simulator
100k Baseline Archive
Start with the pre-tournament 100,000-simulation forecast reference for team paths, match forecasts, and group outlooks.
Some linked team or group pages show newer saved forecasts rather than the pre-tournament reference, so check the date shown on each page.
Available
Open match forecasts Baseline Match Forecasts
Preserved pre-match group-stage forecast reference with match chances, expected points, and official result comparisons.
Available
Open group forecasts Group Forecasts
Latest current-state group forecast snapshot with expected group tables, finish probabilities, xGF, xGA, xGD, and xP.
How to read the 100k baseline archive
What 100k means
The preserved baseline reference summarizes a large pre-match simulation snapshot. It is useful for comparing rare paths, group-rank outcomes, opponent pools, and expected tables against newer current-state snapshots.
Baseline vs live simulator
The archive is a pre-match reference point. The live simulator is separate: it uses official locked results, current ratings, host context, and any scenario settings selected by the user.
What to open first
Team Profiles are best for a national-team path, Match Forecasts compare group games with official results, and Group Forecasts summarize expected tables and finish-position probabilities.
How to read team paths
Path data is about frequency across the snapshot, not a fixed bracket promise. A team can have several common routes depending on group finish, third-place routing, and scoreline tie-breaks.
Why rankings differ
Expected points, finish probabilities, and title chances answer different questions. A team with a strong average group table can still face a harder knockout route than a team with a slightly lower group average.
Use it with the live state
Start with the baseline archive when you want a stable reference. Open the live simulator when you want official results, updated ratings, venue-aware host context, and custom scenario adjustments included.
Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.