WC26 Simulator

World Cup 2026 Projected Bracket

This probability-projected bracket starts from the latest projected group standings, applies FIFA 2026 best-third routing, then advances the higher win-if-matched team in each projected knockout matchup.

This projected tree is not the full probability distribution and not a guarantee. For full distributions, use Group Forecasts, Match Forecasts, and Team Profiles.

Snapshot 2026-07-15 10k current-state simulations Latest result: France 0-2 Spain 101 official results locked modal-champion selection
Spain

Projected champion

Spain

Title chance 60.5% · modal-champion selection

Projected final

Spain (1H) 1-0 Argentina (1J)

90m 0-0 · AET 1-0

Advance if matched — each team's chance to win this matchup if it occurs Matchup chance — chance this exact pairing happens Official results — completed knockout matches show the official score Future matches still show forecast probabilities; completed official matches use the recorded result.
Round of 32
Germany Germany (1E) 1
Paraguay Paraguay (3D) 1

AET 1-1 · Pens 3-4

France France (1I) 3
Sweden Sweden (3F) 0
South Africa South Africa (2A) 0
Canada Canada (2B) 1
Netherlands Netherlands (1F) 1
Morocco Morocco (2C) 1

AET 1-1 · Pens 2-3

Portugal Portugal (2K) 2
Croatia Croatia (2L) 1

90m 2-1 · Final

Spain Spain (1H) 3
Austria Austria (2J) 0

90m 3-0 · Final

USA USA (1D) 2
Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. (3B) 0

90m 2-0 · Final

Belgium Belgium (1G) 3
Senegal Senegal (3I) 2

90m 2-2 · AET 3-2

Brazil Brazil (1C) 2
Japan Japan (2F) 1
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast (2E) 1
Norway Norway (2I) 2
Mexico Mexico (1A) 2
Ecuador Ecuador (3E) 0
England England (1L) 2
DR Congo DR Congo (3K) 1
Argentina Argentina (1J) 3
Cape Verde Cape Verde (2H) 2

90m 1-1 · AET 3-2

Australia Australia (2D) 1
Egypt Egypt (2G) 1

90m 1-1 · AET 1-1 · Pens 2-4

Switzerland Switzerland (1B) 2
Algeria Algeria (3J) 0

90m 2-0 · Final

Colombia Colombia (1K) 1
Ghana Ghana (3L) 0

90m 1-0 · Final

Round of 16
Paraguay Paraguay (3D) 0
France France (1I) 1

90m 0-1 · Final

Canada Canada (2B) 0
Morocco Morocco (2C) 3

90m 0-3 · Final

Portugal Portugal (2K) 0
Spain Spain (1H) 1

90m 0-1 · Final

USA USA (1D) 1
Belgium Belgium (1G) 4

90m 1-4 · Final

Brazil Brazil (1C) 1
Norway Norway (2I) 2

90m 1-2 · Final

Mexico Mexico (1A) 2
England England (1L) 3

90m 2-3 · Final

Argentina Argentina (1J) 3
Egypt Egypt (2G) 2

90m 3-2 · Final

Switzerland Switzerland (1B) 0
Colombia Colombia (1K) 0

90m 0-0 · AET 0-0 · Pens 4-3

Quarter-finals
France France (1I) 2
Morocco Morocco (2C) 0

90m 2-0 · Final

Spain Spain (1H) 2
Belgium Belgium (1G) 1

90m 2-1 · Final

Norway Norway (2I) 1
England England (1L) 2

90m 1-1 · AET 1-2

Argentina Argentina (1J) 3
Switzerland Switzerland (1B) 1

90m 1-1 · AET 3-1

Semi-finals
France France (1I) 0
Spain Spain (1H) 2

90m 0-2 · Final

England England (1L) 1
Argentina Argentina (1J) 2

90m 1-2 · Final

Final
Spain Spain (1H) 1
Argentina Argentina (1J) 0

90m 0-0 · AET 1-0

Champion
Spain Spain Title chance 60.5%

Best third-place scenario

Scenario BDEFIJKL

In this projected group state, eight third-placed teams advance to the Round of 32 under the FIFA 2026 best-third routing.

Qualified 8

  • Bosnia-Herz. Bosnia-Herz. B
  • Paraguay Paraguay D
  • Ecuador Ecuador E
  • Sweden Sweden F
  • Senegal Senegal I
  • Algeria Algeria J
  • DR Congo DR Congo K
  • Ghana Ghana L

Eliminated 4

  • South Korea South Korea A
  • Scotland Scotland C
  • Iran Iran G
  • Uruguay Uruguay H

Title chance — top 3

Across all current-state simulations (the projected champion is the team with the highest title chance).

  1. 1 Spain Spain 60.5%
  2. 2 Argentina Argentina 20.7%
  3. 3 England England 18.8%

Related WC26 pages

Important note: This simulator and its probability outputs are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or participate in any prediction market. No real-money contest is offered or accepted on baplab.