Champions League 2026-27 Simulator
Official completed results stay fixed. Model forecasts estimate remaining tournament paths; interactive simulation explores one possible outcome.
Model forecast · per club
Team Forecast
Tournament chances across many possible paths, with completed official results included in this forecast held fixed.
Forecast as of 2026-10-22 · 100,000 simulations · completed official results included
League Phase elimination <0.1% · Play-off elimination 0.5%
Completed matches show the archived pre-match forecast. Unplayed matches show current model estimates.
Matchday 1 · 8–10 Sep
Matchday 2 · 13–14 Oct
Matchday 3 · 20–21 Oct
Matchday 4 · 3–4 Nov
Matchday 5 · 24–25 Nov
Matchday 6 · 8–9 Dec
Matchday 7 · 19–20 Jan
Matchday 8 · 27 Jan
100,000-simulation reference · all 36 clubs
100K Expected League TableOutlook
Average final league-phase points and positions across simulations—not official standings or one guaranteed table. Top 24 includes play-off places; R16 means reaching the round of 16.
Forecast as of 2026-10-22 · 100,000 simulations · completed official results included
How far Paris Saint-Germain goes
100K referenceExpected league table · 100K simulations
| 1 | Real Madrid | 19.9 | 3.1 | 96.6% | 100.0% | 99.6% | 80.2% | 51.2% | 29.0% | 15.2% |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | 19.7 | 3.1 | 95.5% | 100.0% | 99.5% | 82.0% | 55.1% | 33.3% | 18.4% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 18.7 | 4.6 | 88.1% | 100.0% | 97.7% | 67.2% | 32.9% | 13.7% | 5.5% |
| 4 | Arsenal | 18.2 | 4.7 | 88.1% | 100.0% | 98.7% | 79.4% | 51.9% | 30.6% | 16.6% |
| 5 | Barcelona | 16.7 | 6.5 | 74.5% | 99.9% | 96.8% | 74.7% | 46.8% | 26.8% | 14.3% |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 16.0 | 7.8 | 62.4% | 99.9% | 89.4% | 48.2% | 17.8% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| 7 | Bayern Munich | 15.7 | 8.0 | 62.0% | 99.6% | 95.2% | 72.1% | 44.7% | 26.2% | 14.0% |
| 8 | Manchester City | 15.5 | 8.7 | 56.4% | 99.4% | 92.7% | 64.4% | 36.0% | 18.5% | 9.2% |
| 9 | Real Betis | 14.5 | 11.4 | 31.6% | 99.1% | 66.1% | 19.6% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 10 | Stuttgart | 13.6 | 12.7 | 26.2% | 96.5% | 61.6% | 17.6% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid | 13.5 | 12.5 | 26.3% | 96.4% | 76.3% | 34.8% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 13.5 | 13.3 | 21.8% | 96.3% | 69.7% | 27.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 13 | Sporting CP | 12.1 | 16.0 | 12.0% | 89.1% | 56.4% | 18.0% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 14 | Club Brugge | 12.0 | 16.2 | 11.4% | 88.9% | 45.3% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 15 | Inter | 11.6 | 16.9 | 9.3% | 85.6% | 59.6% | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Como | 11.5 | 16.8 | 8.9% | 88.1% | 45.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| 17 | Napoli | 10.8 | 19.2 | 3.7% | 78.2% | 39.1% | 8.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| 18 | PSV | 10.8 | 19.2 | 4.6% | 76.5% | 37.0% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 19 | Manchester United | 10.4 | 19.9 | 4.2% | 72.3% | 43.7% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 20 | Roma | 10.3 | 19.6 | 3.9% | 74.4% | 38.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| 21 | Villarreal | 10.1 | 20.3 | 3.1% | 71.5% | 31.6% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 9.8 | 21.4 | 2.3% | 64.3% | 20.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 9.7 | 22.0 | 1.7% | 62.2% | 27.8% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 24 | RB Leipzig | 9.6 | 22.6 | 1.7% | 57.8% | 25.1% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 25 | Feyenoord | 9.2 | 23.4 | 1.3% | 52.9% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 26 | Bodø/Glimt | 9.1 | 23.8 | 1.2% | 50.6% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 27 | Lens | 8.5 | 25.0 | 0.6% | 42.6% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 28 | LASK | 8.1 | 26.2 | 0.2% | 36.3% | 5.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 29 | Fenerbahçe | 7.5 | 27.4 | 0.2% | 27.9% | 8.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 30 | AEK Athens | 7.2 | 28.2 | 0.1% | 23.1% | 5.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 31 | Porto | 7.1 | 27.2 | 0.1% | 30.3% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 32 | Lille | 5.8 | 30.1 | <0.1% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 33 | Viking | 5.7 | 30.4 | <0.1% | 11.7% | 1.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Sabah | 5.6 | 31.4 | <0.1% | 7.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Slavia Praha | 4.4 | 32.6 | <0.1% | 4.2% | 0.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4.0 | 33.5 | <0.1% | 3.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Expected-points order: 1–8 direct R16 · 9–24 play-off · 25–36 eliminated
100,000-simulation reference · selected club
Likely Opponents
Opponent frequency is measured among simulations where this club reached the round. Advance rate is measured among simulations where that matchup occurred.
Interactive · your own simulations
Simulate a Tournament
Simulate the rest of the season as many times as you like. Completed official matches stay fixed; remaining matches are simulated. Your runs are separate from the 100K forecast.
Choose how many seasons to simulate, then select Simulate.
Advanced · Reproduce a simulation
No simulation run yet.
Simulation methodology
Team strength combines the current rating with a small European Pedigree modifier. Match Model v2 uses the published club strength ratings with a modest upper-tail calibration for elite clubs before converting strength differences into expected goals; home fixtures apply that club's own Home Advantage v1 default automatically. The league phase uses all 144 official fixtures, and the knockout draw and path follow the implemented UEFA structure. Penalty shootouts are modeled 50/50. Tournament-stage probabilities in Team Forecast above (Top 8, Top 24, Round of 16, and onward) come from a separate stable 100,000-simulation reference, not from your runs below. Each run is generated from an internal seed for exact reproducibility — a simulated scenario, not a prediction of certainty.
Your simulations
How often each club reached each stage in your simulated seasons. Fewer seasons vary more; the 100K forecast above is the stable reference.
This run only
This simulation
This simulation · League Phase
League table from this run
Top 8: direct R16 · 9-24: play-off · 25-36: eliminated
This simulation · selected club
Current Simulated League Phase
This club's eight results in this run: completed official scores plus simulated remaining matches.
Run a tournament simulation to see this club's simulated league-phase results and tournament path.
This simulation · selected club
Knockout Journey
Only the stages reached by the selected club.
This club's knockout path will appear here after a tournament run.
This simulation · full tournament
All Matches
Every simulated match in official order. Expand a matchday or round to see results.
League Phase
Knockout Phase
All 36 clubs
All Teams Journey
Deepest stage reached in this simulated season.
Club reference · model & official draw
CLUB RATINGS & DRAW
Real UEFA draw result — not a simulationStrength Rating, European Pedigree, and UEFA draw pot for all 36 clubs, plus each club's actual, completed 2026-27 league-phase draw. Tap a club to see its 8 official fixtures and draw difficulty — BapLab's own rating, not an official UEFA metric.